Me. Do you still think our actions have little if anything to do with global warming?
OF (old friend): Not that long ago the facts contradicted the desired conclusion, so the folks at East Anglia (remember them) decided to simply ignore some of the facts and alter others … there’s pure science for you.
Me: Sorry to learn that you are still stuck in the East Anglia time warp.
After the emails were exposed and panels set up to investigate you had a wonderfully open mind, at least in my recollection. I believe when the first couple of panels came out vindicating the scientists you emailed your list of conservative friends with an attachment about the panels and a note something like “Maybe the scientists have something”. Someone fired back the put-downs of the panels vilifying them because on each panel there was someone connected with the scientists in some way. That worked for you and you have hung your hat on vilifying the scientists ever since. In the end there were six panels and all six found the science valid. If half of the panels had gone one way and the other half the other, I’d have probably still been leaning toward accepting the East Anglia climate model. Had five or six of the panels questioned the science, I’d be on your side.
OF: Here is a hint of what you might find with just a little research … concepts never to be heard on NPR or seen on PBS … why is that?
Me: Actually I am aware of all of this, have received it on PBS/NPR and am aware that the scientific points have been figured into the climate change programs. This article is about earth’s orbital variations which are in 100,000 year cycles, 42,000 year cycles and 21,000 years cycles. The climatologists have figured those into their models.
The article also says the sunspot cycle is now believed to be in a 125 year cycle. That, too, is part of the East Anglia model.
The second link you sent was an opinion piece titled “Evidence That the Earth Wobbling on it’ Axis Causes Climate Change…Could this Finally Prove The Global Alarmists Wrong?”
A quote from this piece, “There are many reasons why Global Warming can take place…” is common knowledge among those of us who follow this issue with unbiased interest. The East Anglia model incorporates all of them looking at the best and worst case scenarios which is what gives the range of predictions
OF: I am truly astounded … PBS and NPR … you wouldn’t kid your old roomie would you?
Not much for the deniers to deny when there’s nothing new from the other side … all the news lately tends to counter the notion of a warming planet … most says it’s cooling.
Me: You really might want to consider your source of news. The following link is to a transcript of a program I heard on NPR last week. I wasn’t looking for something on climate change. I just turned on the radio.
The cooling part you talk about is where we are in the sunspot and earth wobble cycles which makes the fact that the earth is warming even more…oh, dear, do I dare say “alarming”?
OF: I know this is pretty heavy stuff for an actor turned gentleman farmer, but give it your best shot. The science is not settled and Al Gore is still a self-serving scoundrel, if not simply a flaming idiot.
Me: Oh me oh my, I did my best to understand that link but the language was so…what should I say, “biased” that it was difficult to keep from laughing; but it was really wonderful to get another look at your news sources. I did use some of their links which were enlightening but I confess I got tired of the repetition and didn’t get much more than half way through. I did look all the way through just in case there was some gem hidden away. Please compare the language of the link you sent:“,,,there remain those political elites and mainstream ‘journalists’ bitterly clinging to their blatantly incorrect, non-scientific, irrational (insane?) fears of “scary” global warming.”
compared with the language of the link I’m sending below.
“Subsequent research has confirmed this result. A survey of 3146 earth scientists asked the question “Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?” (Doran 2009). More than 90% of participants had Ph.D.s, and 7% had master’s degrees. Overall, 82% of the scientists answered yes. However, what are most interesting are responses compared to the level of expertise in climate science. Of scientists who were non-climatologists and didn’t publish research, 77% answered yes. In contrast, 97.5% of climatologists who actively publish research on climate change responded yes. As the level of active research and specialization in climate science increases, so does agreement that humans are significantly changing global temperatures.”
I know you will appreciate this as you dismissed one article I sent you as being poorly written. When I suggested you take a look at the research that the article was about you wrote: “I’ll probably get to it, but why should we have to research it if the guy who reportedly did the work can’t make a convincing case?” I’m guessing you didn’t as I didn’t hear any more after that.
Following is another quote from the most recent link you sent:
“Taxpayers have spent billions on CO2-driven climate model ‘science,’ which the empirical evidence now suggests was like pouring money down a rat-hole….the abysmal prediction failure of CO2-centric models is simply fact – are there actual scientific models that can replace this current wasteland of biased AGW climate research?”
The answer to that question is “You betcha.” Here is the link to the research this author and you haven’t read.
PS: I found it interesting that you had time to Google a response to my email rather than answer it directly.
PPS: I got a kick out of “actor, gentleman farmer”, I mean, ha, ha, ha, how could I have anything substantive to say, right?
OF: OK, you’re right I didn’t respond to your original message … You gave me a link to something you heard on NPR. I know, you listened to the broadcast so you probably saw no need to read the transcript … I did … well, much of it. Looks to be a group of “scientists” whimpering over the lack of respect they are accorded. In his attempt to talk about his science (page 2) Michael Mann describes the foundation of his famous Hockey Stick theory … temperature readings only go back about 100 years so beyond that we look at tree rings, corals and ice cones. I believe most scientists quite placing their faith in tree rings after discovering these didn’t coincide with actual recorded temperatures in the second half of the last century. Later Mr. Mann talks about Hurricane Sandy … “ there is certainly a climate change component …”. Thomas, I don’t think he can find too many scientists that blamed Sandy on climate change, even though the media did its damndest to do just that. Mann wants us to believe that the storm surge was roughly a foot higher than one might expect from a hurricane except for climate change … I doubt he can convince a group of knowledgeable 8th graders with that argument.
The old adage: Figures lie and liars figure is more than just a little appropriate on this subject. You reminded me of a critique I provided on an article that I wrote it off, simply because it was so poorly written. If memory serves, my objection was that it was presumably “peer reviewed”. If so, one should question the qualifications of the peer group. When I said earlier that the reason you haven’t seen much from the deniers lately is because all the new “evidence” seems to support their position … there’s nothing new to deny. Would you agree that since 1998 all of the statistics seem to show that global warming has stalled, if not reversed? According to some, the planet has actually cooled 0.08 degrees in that period and they’re using data provided by the UN’s IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Here is an IPCC report that the IPCC didn’t want to get out until they could find a way to spin it:
Subject: Leaked IPCC Climate Report Shows UN Overestimated Global Warming
Here is another example of playing with the data to make a point that supports a predetermined conclusion:
Subject: Was 2012 the Hottest Year? Alarmists Blowing Hot Air Again
There’s entirely too much BS associated with this subject and it’s being bandied about by people who are not qualified. I do firmly believe that I am still being open minded and objective in looking at it, but if you disagree that’s your privilege.
ME: Well, you still didn’t respond to my original message. By response I mean to what I said. I’ll keep this real short.
I said there were six (actually eight) panels that vindicated the East Anglia scientists and said their research was valid and that if they had said otherwise, I would have accepted that the research was tainted at best.
You choose to accept the put-down of those panels, all of them. What would your reaction have been if the reports had been the opposite and I had disregarded them because of some nonsense floating around the internet?
Satan Wrote The Bible fans, you may wonder what this has to do with this site. My Old Friend is a practicing Catholic. I think research would show that people who have stayed in one religion for life are less likely to think outside the box they construct around themselves.
I’ll be passing on more of this dialogue. My Old Friend has still not answered this question